Forecasted Questions
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 17% | -14% | +6% |
No | 97% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 83% | +14% | -6% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:42PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 09:42PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 35% | 21% | +14% | -15% |
No | 65% | 79% | -14% | +15% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 09:43PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 09:58PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Sep 01, 2024 09:58PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 55% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 55% | +0% | -1% |
No | 45% | Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 45% | +0% | +1% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2024 02:47PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Sep 15, 2024 02:47PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 2% | 9% | -7% | -2% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 2% | 7% | -5% | -1% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2024 04:27PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Sep 15, 2024 04:27PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 45% | 44% | +1% | -1% |
No | 55% | 56% | -1% | +1% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2024 04:31PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Sep 15, 2024 04:31PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 15% | 11% | +4% | -2% |
No | 85% | 89% | -4% | +2% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 05:16PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 05:16PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Togo | 25% | 33% | -8% | +7% |
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 30% | 40% | -10% | +0% |