It is not going to happen in the near future
1.260873
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 25, 2023 10:43AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jun 25, 2023 to Dec 25, 2023
No evidence at the moment this will happen. Consequences would be so negative to China and it would be too risky to fail.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
That will happen in the future in some non-democratic countries which see this a threat for them but it will come later.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-15%)
Yes
Putin is too strong to be replaced
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Putin’s position is strong and there is no evidence so far he would be replaced
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 7%
0%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
100%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
0%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
0%
More than or equal to 22%
Russia is too strong and well prepared for Ukraine counteroffensive
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
Yes
79%
No
It is coming too early
Files