Forecasted Questions
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:31PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 07:31PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 2% | 9% | -7% | -2% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 4% | 7% | -3% | +0% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:33PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 07:33PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 40% | 44% | -4% | +1% |
No | 60% | 56% | +4% | -1% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:33PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 07:33PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 7% | Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 | Dec 29, 2024 | 8% | -1% | +1% |
No | 93% | Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 | Dec 29, 2024 | 92% | +1% | -1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:38PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 07:38PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 21% | -11% | -2% |
No | 90% | 79% | +11% | +2% |
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:43PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 07:43PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications | 48% | 39% | +9% | +1% |
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP | 47% | 56% | -9% | +1% |
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP | 5% | 5% | +0% | -1% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 07:46PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 07:46PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 24% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 17% | +7% | +4% |
No | 76% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 83% | -7% | -4% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 08:00PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 08:00PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 50% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 55% | -5% | +6% |
No | 50% | Sep 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2025 | Oct 29, 2024 | 45% | +5% | -6% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 08:11PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 08:11PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 38% | 43% | -5% | +2% |
No | 62% | 57% | +5% | -2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 | Dec 29, 2024 | 5% | -1% | +1% |
No | 96% | Sep 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2025 | Dec 29, 2024 | 95% | +1% | -1% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |