RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:46PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	25%	16%	+9%	-4%
Bolivia	35%	22%	+13%	-3%
Ecuador	15%	12%	+3%	-3%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:56PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	10%	11%	-1%	+1%
Kenya	10%	9%	+1%	+0%
Ethiopia	40%	35%	+5%	-2%
Nigeria	3%	5%	-2%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:57PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	36%	-1%	-1%
No	65%	64%	+1%	+1%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 09:58PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	8%	-7%	-3%
No	99%	92%	+7%	+3%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:00PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	35%	32%	+3%	-2%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	60%	65%	-5%	+2%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	5%	3%	+2%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	5%	-1%	+0%
No	96%	95%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:03PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	4%	7%	-3%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	2%	4%	-2%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	21%	+9%	-2%
No	70%	79%	-9%	+2%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:23PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	28%	Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025	Feb 5, 2025	22%	+6%	+0%
No	72%	Nov 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2025	Feb 5, 2025	78%	-6%	+0%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 09:51PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	38%	+2%	+2%
No	60%	62%	-2%	-2%

Jeroen

Jeroen

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