RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	4%	-3%	+1%
No	99%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	96%	+3%	-1%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Jan 31, 2025	0%	+0%	0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	20%	25%	-5%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	30%	35%	-5%	-1%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 07:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	6%	-1%	-3%
No	95%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	94%	+1%	+3%

Jeroen

Jeroen

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