Forecasted Questions
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 05:46PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 05:46PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 5% | 1% | +4% | -1% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 8% | 8% | +1% | -4% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 18% | 27% | -9% | +0% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 32% | 37% | -5% | +2% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 37% | 27% | +10% | +3% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 05:51PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 05:51PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 13% | 13% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 40% | 51% | -11% | -1% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 31% | 34% | -3% | +2% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 13% | 2% | +11% | +0% |
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 05:55PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 05:55PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 9% | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
| Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 15% | 19% | -4% | -1% |
| Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 62% | 72% | -10% | +0% |
| Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 15% | 8% | +7% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 40% | 4% | 0% | +4% | +0% |