The biggest market for chip is the US. All the AI/machine learning/computing lead-research and development are located in the US. Moreover, the value-added of sold product containing chip is the highest in the US. Hence I do not see, in the near future a drop of the NA market share in TSMC's results.
0.02103
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Artificial Intelligence,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Iran-VNSAs
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Answer
0%
2023 Q2
0%
2023 Q3
0%
2023 Q4
0%
2024 Q1
0%
2024 Q2
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Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Putin has a firm grip on the country. Nobody dares to challenges him and the muddy details of the death of Navalny reinforces my instinct nothing could keep him away from the Russian Federation presidency.
The only possibility is death from natural or health issues as he is 71.
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It's a (statistical) normal estimation that I skewed around 90-100 based on past data.