Forecasted Questions
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 07:29PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 07:29PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 18% | 22% | -4% | -17% |
More than or equal to 28% | 82% | 77% | +5% | +17% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts
28 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 03:51AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 03:51AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
36 Forecasts
36 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 03:51AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 03:51AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 0% | +2% | +0% |
No | 98% | 100% | -2% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts
29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 03:51AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 03:51AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts
30 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 03:57AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 03:57AM UTC
(13 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 30% | Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025 | Oct 18, 2024 | 6% | +24% | -2% |
No | 70% | Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025 | Oct 18, 2024 | 94% | -24% | +2% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 10:54PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Sep 19, 2024 10:54PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 11% | 4% | +7% | +0% |
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts
31 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 10:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Sep 19, 2024 10:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025 | Oct 19, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025 | Oct 19, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 10:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Sep 19, 2024 10:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts
30 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 10:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Sep 19, 2024 10:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 10:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Sep 19, 2024 10:55PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 98% | 96% | +2% | +1% |
No | 2% | 4% | -2% | -1% |