Forecasted Questions
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 10:35PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 10:35PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | 3% | 11% | -8% | +0% |
| Kenya | 3% | 9% | -6% | +0% |
| Ethiopia | 5% | 35% | -30% | +0% |
| Nigeria | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 07:03PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 20, 2024 07:03PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 27% | -7% | +1% |
| No | 80% | 73% | +7% | -1% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 07:14PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 20, 2024 07:14PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 25% | -11% | +1% |
| No | 86% | 75% | +11% | -1% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 07:26PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 20, 2024 07:26PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 5% | 1% | +4% | +0% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 34% | 13% | +21% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 46% | 50% | -4% | -2% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 13% | 33% | -20% | +3% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 07:45PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 20, 2024 07:45PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 12% | 1% | +11% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 18% | 7% | +11% | -1% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 24% | 27% | -3% | +0% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 23% | 37% | -14% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 23% | 27% | -4% | +1% |
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 20, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 38% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 60% | 62% | -2% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 5% | +10% | +0% |
| No | 85% | 95% | -10% | +0% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 08:05PM UTC
(11 hours ago)
Nov 21, 2024 08:05PM UTC
(11 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 3% | 16% | -13% | +0% |
| Bolivia | 10% | 22% | -12% | +0% |
| Ecuador | 8% | 12% | -4% | 0% |