RAND Forecasting Initiative

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:22PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
More than or equal to 28%	99%	94%	+5%	+1%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
43 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:24PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025	Dec 17, 2024	1%	+3%	+0%
No	96%	Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025	Dec 17, 2024	99%	-3%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
37 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:24PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025	Feb 17, 2025	22%	-14%	+0%
No	92%	Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025	Feb 17, 2025	78%	+14%	+0%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:25PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	99%	97%	+2%	+0%
No	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:30PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025	Feb 17, 2025	13%	+22%	+4%
No	65%	Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025	Feb 17, 2025	87%	-22%	-4%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:33PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	34%	+26%	+1%
No	40%	66%	-26%	-1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:35PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025	Dec 17, 2024	12%	+0%	-2%
No	88%	Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025	Dec 17, 2024	88%	+0%	+2%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025	Dec 17, 2024	10%	+2%	-5%
No	88%	Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025	Dec 17, 2024	90%	-2%	+5%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:37PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	5%	+4%	+0%
No	91%	95%	-4%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:37PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	22%	36%	-14%	+0%
No	78%	64%	+14%	+0%

MrLittleTexas

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