RAND Forecasting Initiative

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	-2%
No	99%	95%	+4%	+2%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025	Oct 19, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025	Oct 19, 2024	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
38 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025	Oct 19, 2024	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025	Oct 19, 2024	99%	-1%	+0%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2024 12:47AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	44%	-14%	+0%
No	70%	56%	+14%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2024 02:34AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
38 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 06:51PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025	Oct 23, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025	Oct 23, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 02:54AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Dec 24, 2024	3%	+12%	+0%
No	85%	Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025	Dec 24, 2024	97%	-12%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
35 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2024 03:03PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	22%	-12%	-5%
No	90%	78%	+12%	+5%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 02:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	87%	Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	87%	+0%	+24%
No	13%	Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025	Oct 25, 2024	13%	+0%	-24%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025	Dec 27, 2024	8%	-2%	+2%
No	94%	Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025	Dec 27, 2024	92%	+2%	-2%

MrLittleTexas

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