RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 10:56PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	9%	9%	+0%	-2%
Su-35 fighter jets	9%	7%	+2%	-1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 10:57PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	16%	Sep 19, 2024 to Sep 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	5%	+11%	+1%
No	84%	Sep 19, 2024 to Sep 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	95%	-11%	-1%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 10:59PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 11:03PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	11%	+1%	-1%
No	88%	89%	-1%	+1%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 11:38PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	6%	+4%	-2%
No	90%	94%	-4%	+2%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
39 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 11:47PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025	Dec 19, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	2%	+3%	+0%
No	96%	99%	-3%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	4%	7%	-3%	-1%
Armenia	3%	1%	+2%	0%
Georgia	4%	3%	+1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	2%	1%	+1%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

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