RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:38PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	8%	-8%	-1%
No	100%	92%	+8%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:39PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	8%	24%	-16%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	46%	39%	+7%	+1%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
39 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:41PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025	Feb 17, 2025	4%	+9%	+0%
No	87%	Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025	Feb 17, 2025	96%	-9%	+0%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:42PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	9%	9%	+0%	-1%
No	91%	91%	+0%	+1%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:45PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025	Dec 17, 2024	24%	+16%	+1%
No	60%	Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025	Dec 17, 2024	76%	-16%	-1%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
35 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:47PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:47PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2026	Feb 17, 2025	12%	-7%	+0%
No	95%	Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2026	Feb 17, 2025	88%	+7%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	34%	35%	-1%	-1%
No	66%	65%	+1%	+1%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 09:57PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	21%	-6%	+0%
No	85%	79%	+6%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 10:20PM UTC
(4 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	16%	32%	-16%	-1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	75%	65%	+10%	+1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	9%	3%	+6%	0%

MrLittleTexas

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