Forecasted Questions
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 11:48PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 11:48PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 11:48PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 11:48PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts
29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 11% | 7% | +4% | -1% |
Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
Georgia | 4% | 3% | +1% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | Sep 18, 2024 to Sep 18, 2025 | Dec 18, 2024 | 5% | -3% | +1% |
No | 98% | Sep 18, 2024 to Sep 18, 2025 | Dec 18, 2024 | 95% | +3% | -1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025 | Oct 18, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025 | Oct 18, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 7% | 6% | +1% | -2% |
No | 93% | 94% | -1% | +2% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 6% | Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025 | Oct 18, 2024 | 6% | +0% | -3% |
No | 94% | Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025 | Oct 18, 2024 | 94% | +0% | +3% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts
30 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 7% | 9% | -2% | -2% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 3% | 7% | -4% | -1% |