RAND Forecasting Initiative

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025	Jan 23, 2025	0%	+0%	+0%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025	Nov 23, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 23, 2024 to Apr 23, 2025	Nov 23, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
34 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	-1%
No	99%	95%	+4%	+1%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 02:51PM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	21%	Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025	Jan 29, 2025	22%	-1%	-8%
No	79%	Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025	Jan 29, 2025	78%	+1%	+8%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 01:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	42%	Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025	Dec 2, 2024	51%	-9%	+0%
No	58%	Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025	Dec 2, 2024	49%	+9%	+0%

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