Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
34 Forecasts
34 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 1% | 9% | -8% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 1% | 6% | -5% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | 34% | -13% | +2% |
| No | 79% | 66% | +13% | -2% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts
28 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025 | Dec 16, 2024 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025 | Dec 16, 2024 | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts
29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 16, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 8% | -8% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 92% | +8% | +1% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 17, 2024 02:54PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Nov 17, 2024 02:54PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025 | Feb 17, 2025 | 12% | +0% | +4% |
| No | 88% | Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025 | Feb 17, 2025 | 88% | +0% | -4% |