Forecasted Questions
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts
32 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025 | Dec 22, 2024 | 8% | -5% | +2% |
| No | 97% | Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025 | Dec 22, 2024 | 92% | +5% | -2% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +2% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 01:54PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Sep 28, 2024 01:54PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42% | Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025 | Oct 28, 2024 | 54% | -12% | +4% |
| No | 58% | Sep 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025 | Oct 28, 2024 | 46% | +12% | -4% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Sep 28, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 34% | 41% | -7% | -2% |
| No | 66% | 59% | +7% | +2% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Sep 28, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | 96% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Sep 28, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41% | 44% | -3% | +1% |
| No | 59% | 56% | +3% | -1% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Sep 28, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29% | 25% | +4% | -2% |
| No | 71% | 75% | -4% | +2% |