RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 02:28PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	27%	19%	+8%	+1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	67%	72%	-5%	-1%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	6%	8%	-2%	+0%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 04:14PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	21%	Nov 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2025	Feb 13, 2025	22%	-1%	+1%
No	79%	Nov 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2025	Feb 13, 2025	78%	+1%	-1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	34%	35%	-1%	-2%
No	66%	65%	+1%	+2%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	61%	Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025	Dec 16, 2024	57%	+4%	+1%
No	39%	Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025	Dec 16, 2024	43%	-4%	-1%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:44PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	97%	+3%	+0%
No	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	21%	+4%	-1%
No	75%	79%	-4%	+1%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	36%	-1%	-1%
No	65%	64%	+1%	+1%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:46PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	16%	16%	+0%	-4%
Bolivia	24%	22%	+2%	-1%
Ecuador	8%	12%	-4%	-1%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:47PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	12%	11%	+1%	+0%
Kenya	9%	9%	+0%	+0%
Ethiopia	33%	35%	-2%	+0%
Nigeria	4%	5%	-1%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:47PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	5%	+1%	-2%
No	94%	95%	-1%	+2%

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