RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

You quit this question on May 7, 2025 07:57PM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
43 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 06, 2025 10:07AM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	100%	4%	+96%	-6%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 03:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	95%	+5%	+13%
No	0%	5%	-5%	-13%

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 03:24PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	10%	15%	-5%	-2%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	79%	52%	+27%	+3%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	10%	13%	-3%	+0%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	1%	8%	-7%	+0%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	0%	12%	-12%	-1%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 03:35PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	32%	42%	-10%	-1%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million	39%	37%	+3%	+1%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million	21%	16%	+5%	+0%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million	7%	5%	+2%	-1%
More than or equal to $650 million	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
64 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 03:37PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Dec 12, 2025 to Jun 12, 2027	Mar 12, 2026	6%	+0%	+0%
No	94%	Dec 12, 2025 to Jun 12, 2027	Mar 12, 2026	94%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
72 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 03:38PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 12, 2025 to Jun 12, 2026	Jan 12, 2026	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 12, 2025 to Jun 12, 2026	Jan 12, 2026	99%	+0%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
43 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 03:39PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	70%	68%	+2%	+0%
30 days	0%	6%	-6%	+0%
31-60 days	4%	5%	-1%	+0%
61-90 days	4%	5%	-1%	+0%
91 days or more	22%	16%	+6%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
95 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 03:39PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	97%	96%	+1%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
102 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 03:40PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	3%	3%	+0%	0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Lithuania	3%	3%	+0%	+0%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 12, 2025 03:40PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	45%	-5%	+0%
No	60%	55%	+5%	+0%

PeterStamp

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