Forecasted Questions
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 15% | 11% | +4% | +0% |
No | 85% | 89% | -4% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
53 Forecasts
53 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 12:18PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications | 45% | 39% | +6% | -2% |
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP | 45% | 56% | -11% | +2% |
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP | 10% | 5% | +5% | +0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 12:19PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
No | 99% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 12:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Dec 25, 2024 | 3% | -1% | -1% |
No | 98% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Dec 25, 2024 | 97% | +1% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
61 Forecasts
61 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 12:22PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts
27 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 12:23PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 12:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
45 Forecasts
45 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 12:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 12:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +2% | +0% |