Forecasted Questions
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 04:33PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | 10% | 11% | -1% | +0% |
| Kenya | 10% | 9% | +1% | 0% |
| Ethiopia | 40% | 35% | +5% | +0% |
| Nigeria | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts
26 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 04:34PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 04:34PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 28% | 97% | 94% | +3% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts
27 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 04:35PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 04:35PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 34% | +6% | +1% |
| No | 60% | 66% | -6% | -1% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 04:35PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 04:35PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 25% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 75% | 75% | +0% | +0% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 04:45PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 04:45PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 10% | 7% | +3% | -3% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 27% | 27% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 31% | 37% | -6% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 31% | 27% | +4% | +3% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 04:46PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 04:46PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 35% | +5% | -1% |
| No | 60% | 65% | -5% | +1% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 04:47PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 20, 2024 04:47PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 30% | 24% | +6% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 40% | 39% | +1% | +0% |