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PeterStamp

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My name is Peter Stamp. I´m a 1971 born german financial advisor and insurance broker.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jun 28, 2024 10:11AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
 22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 28, 2024 10:11AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 90% 10%
No 10% 90%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 11:36AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 11:36AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Argentina 25% 18%
Bolivia 25% 21%
Ecuador 15% 12%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 11:37AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 20% Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 Dec 11, 2024 14%
No 80% Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 Dec 11, 2024 86%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 11:38AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 7%
No 90% 93%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 60 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 11:38AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 11:38AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 Dec 11, 2024 1%
No 100% Nov 11, 2024 to May 11, 2025 Dec 11, 2024 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 68 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 11:38AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 11:38AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 34 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 11, 2024 11:39AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 2%
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