Forecasted Questions
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
You quit this question on Jun 28, 2024 10:11AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2024 10:11AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jun 28, 2024 10:11AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 90% | 15% | +75% | -63% |
No | 10% | 85% | -75% | +63% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:43AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Nov 05, 2024 10:43AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Nov 05, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | 25% | 20% | +5% | +0% |
Bolivia | 25% | 23% | +2% | +0% |
Ecuador | 15% | 12% | +3% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Nov 05, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 20% | Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025 | Dec 5, 2024 | 18% | +2% | +0% |
No | 80% | Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025 | Dec 5, 2024 | 82% | -2% | +0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Nov 05, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 9% | +1% | +0% |
No | 90% | 91% | -1% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts
24 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:48AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Nov 05, 2024 10:48AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 30% | 27% | +3% | +0% |
No | 70% | 73% | -3% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
59 Forecasts
59 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:50AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Nov 05, 2024 10:50AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
No | 100% | 100% | +0% | 0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:50AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Nov 05, 2024 10:50AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025 | Dec 5, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | Nov 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025 | Dec 5, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
67 Forecasts
67 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:50AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Nov 05, 2024 10:50AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | 0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2024 10:51AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Nov 05, 2024 10:51AM UTC
(8 hours ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | 0% |