Short of him dying or an externally supported coup, I don't see this happening. The coup seems unlikely in this timeframe because because Biden will still be president.
0.104267
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Iran-VNSAs
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I think that the situation in Gaza may be resolved in the next month or so. If that happens, the Houthi’s will probably stop their attacks in a similar timeframe. Once those events happen, I believe a few other types of shipments will begin going through before oil. So, I believe it is more likely than the current consensus, but not better than even odds.
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Why do you think you're right?
I think there is a significant likelihood that the current AI bubble will have popped at that point. If not, I suspect that purchases of the most powerful chips will have slowed. Similarly, there are some unexpected events, like surprise announcement from a competitor about a new class of chips or something like that that could result in a potentially negative shock.
Why might you be wrong?
If a new computationally intensive algorithmic advancements have been made that perform significantly better at economically useful tasks have been discovered and commercialized, then demand for high end chips could continue to grow.