RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? 0.037967
    Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? -0.088197
    Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? -0.105911
    Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? -0.093275
    Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022? 0.017823
    Aug 22, 2023 09:00AM Will Prayut Chan-o-cha be re-elected as prime minister of Thailand by the Thai parliament after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024? 0.006197
    Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023) 0.000116
    Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? 0.11976
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya? 0.000047
    Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023) 0.0
    Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023) 0.0
    May 23, 2023 03:04PM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.000359
    May 15, 2023 05:45PM Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023? 0.006108
    Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? 0.006437
    Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022? -0.015151
    Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? -0.012609
    Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? 0.00004
    Apr 1, 2023 04:01AM Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? 0.006936
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.001535
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? 0.041017
     
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