RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jul 1, 2022 08:00PM How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 0.211008
    Jun 15, 2022 01:12PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jul 2022 0.010107
    Jun 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022) 0.001484
    Jun 2, 2022 01:40PM What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022? -0.114576
    May 31, 2022 03:08PM Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? -0.149641
    May 25, 2022 02:09PM Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022? -0.001838
    May 15, 2022 01:00PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jun 2022 -0.058598
    May 6, 2022 09:00PM What will be the end of day closing price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on 6 May 2022? -0.038396
    May 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022) 0.00142
    May 1, 2022 04:00AM What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll? 0.166893
    Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.0645
    Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -0.05461
    Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD? -0.091752
    Apr 15, 2022 01:10PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - May 2022 -0.078431
    Apr 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022) -0.003826
    Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial? -0.027311
    Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? -0.005709
    Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.353355
    Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022? 0.010233
    Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) -0.004139
     
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