RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023) 0.000172
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? -0.001349
    Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023? 0.049533
    Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? -0.261772
    Mar 15, 2023 01:24PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2023 0.000973
    Mar 1, 2023 05:01AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022) 0.007026
    Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? 0.003304
    Feb 15, 2023 01:01PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Mar 2023 -0.002359
    Feb 2, 2023 05:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.000664
    Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022? -0.012863
    Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022? -0.00298
    Jan 15, 2023 02:00PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Feb 2023 0.017112
    Jan 3, 2023 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 3, 2022 and Jan 3, 2023) 0.0002
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.236925
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.238542
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website? 0.106238
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.526298
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe? 0.011272
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.027223
    Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? -0.000102
     
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