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RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Feb 11, 2022 10:00PM UTC How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 0.009887
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? -0.039878
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? -0.071324
Feb 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.023883
Jan 31, 2022 03:38PM UTC How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 0.021941
Jan 31, 2022 03:35PM UTC How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.005284
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.066108
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.077782
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021 0.003264
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.010042
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.005442
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.001587
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.003462
Jan 04, 2022 01:10PM UTC What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.114026
Jan 01, 2022 02:17PM UTC Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? -0.003433
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? 0.005253
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? -0.013641
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.00685
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? 0.103128
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) -0.00579
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