RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021) -0.045593
    Feb 11, 2022 10:00PM How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 0.009887
    Feb 8, 2022 06:49AM Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? -0.039878
    Feb 3, 2022 02:00PM What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? -0.071324
    Feb 1, 2022 05:00AM How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.023883
    Jan 31, 2022 03:38PM How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 0.021941
    Jan 31, 2022 03:35PM How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.005284
    Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.066108
    Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021 -0.077782
    Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021 0.003264
    Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.010042
    Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.005442
    Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.001587
    Jan 4, 2022 01:22PM How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.003462
    Jan 4, 2022 01:10PM What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.114026
    Jan 1, 2022 02:17PM Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? -0.003433
    Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? 0.005253
    Jan 1, 2022 01:49PM Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? -0.013641
    Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.00685
    Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? 0.103128
     
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