RyanBeck

Ryan Beck
About:

I'm the Forecasting Program Coordinator at Metaculus. Formerly a bridge engineer and I've also written some sci-fi.

GJOpen Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/87827

Metaculus Profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/117502/

"... the strength of opinion in each individual, and its practical influence on his conduct, depend much on the number which he supposes to have entertained the same opinion. The reason of man, like man himself, is timid and cautious when left alone and acquires firmness and confidence in proportion to the number with which it is associated." -Federalist No. 49

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? -0.018941
    Dec 15, 2022 01:02PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Jan 2023 0.021998
    Dec 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022) 0.000053
    Nov 15, 2022 01:01PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Dec 2022 -0.054805
    Nov 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022) 0.000516
    Oct 15, 2022 01:00PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Nov 2022 -0.14697
    Oct 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022) 0.00122
    Sep 17, 2022 07:16PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Oct 2022 0.040482
    Sep 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022) 0.0002
    Aug 15, 2022 01:00PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Sep 2022 -0.024867
    Aug 9, 2022 08:00PM Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22? -0.022992
    Aug 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 3, 2022 and Aug 3, 2022) 0.000419
    Aug 1, 2022 04:00AM How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 -0.085847
    Jul 29, 2022 01:55PM How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022? 0.050953
    Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023? -0.02277
    Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? 0.029547
    Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) -0.212438
    Jul 15, 2022 01:10PM What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Aug 2022 -0.003519
    Jul 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022) 0.001547
    Jul 1, 2022 08:00PM How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2022 H1 0.246193
     
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