Some of these companies try it, even if they are not well prepared or test AI enough.
0.540182
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Artificial Intelligence,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(+30%)
Yes
40%
(-30%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Some of these companies try it, even if it might be a clumsy effort (=including some basic mistakes, errors etc.).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
Russia's technological capabilities and resources are stretched; caused by the Ukrainian war and the present unclear situation in the political leadership (even very remoted possibility to civil war, as the Wagner-revolt 23-24 June 2023 demonstrated) and also a very lacklustre economic development during 2022 - 2023. That said, there is also a strong political need to show internally and also to clobal community the advancements and achiements of Russia .
Files
I agree. But the worst thing for him now is to have an unsuccessful launch.plus it's been so long between the last time they had a successful launch and because all they're launching resources for dedicated to testing military ICBMs like the Sarmat so I agree.It's not 0 but it's really low
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Wagner-revolt and the dire situation in Ukrainan war (dire from the russian perspective) are showing weaknesses of Putin's Administration. Part of elites turn to against for Putin's presidency.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A general uncertainty is huge related to Russia.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Tense geopolitical situation in south Asia increases a probability to level 3 and 4.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Fundamentally new or important issues will not emerge in relationships between Australia and China in 2023 - 2024.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The use of AI is expanding in unlimited space. Human and AI voices will be mixed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
AI might be regulated in a manner that limits also the use of AI-generated vocals.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
a gloomy business cycle and high level of interest rates 2023 - 2024 slow also tha pace for adapting new technogies.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If wrong, that is because I am too pessimistic about the business cycle 2023 - 2024 and moreover, I underestimate the pace of adapation of new technologies.
Files
Altough unlikely, there is always a possibility that internal control of chinese people by the communist party in China might somehow be jeopardised. Then a foregin enemt and national pride has to be restored. The attack might also be a result of an unforeseen international disruptions (for example, bad policy by the US or escalation of the Ukrainian war). China's economic development is very risky adding to the possibility to turn internal problems to foreign conflicts.