If Iran countinues development sucsesfully probably there will be some kind of attac.
0.544717
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Science & Technology,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 21, 2023 09:27AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45%
Yes
Jul 21, 2023 to Jan 21, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
He will not do it volunteary and russian system collapses without strong leader, so it’s not propable that military and insiders would implement against Putin.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin’s medical condition? There is no accurate information how sig he is.
Assassination by Ukr, other country or Wagner forces.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
Less than 7%
65%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
18%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
0%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
0%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Ukrain have strong will, motivation and international support.
Russian soldiers have low motivation, no reason to fight for, poor commanding.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
International support for Ukrain ends. Rus kills UKR president.
Rus uses a-bomb and forses UKR to peace with poor condition.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
At the moment they are attacing Ukraine and don’t have resourses or focos to moon program.
Files
Iaea will not have acces those areas, where uranium is located, if they manage enrich it.