Confirmed previous forecast
0.614339
Relative Brier Score
85
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 43 | 21 | 85 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 20 | 11 | 27 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Mission: Diplomacy
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 21, 2024 to Feb 21, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 21, 2024 05:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 21, 2024 to Feb 21, 2025
94%
(0%)
No
Aug 21, 2024 to Feb 21, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
93%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Confirm previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 24, 2024 05:31AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-5%)
Yes
Jun 24, 2024 to Dec 24, 2024
Not likely to happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Seeing the current scenario between the two and the western government it is less likely to happen.
Files
To take such a big step there need to proper planning and procedures .. seeing the time left and the current statement by the head of Microsoft research Peter lee this is not likely to happen in coming future