According to Marina Miron, a postdoctoral research fellow in war studies at King's College London, the Russian military, rather than seeking rapid advances, appears comfortable in maintaining the territory it already dominates. Russian forces outnumber Ukrainian forces by nearly three to one on the battlefield, and with a larger population to replenish its ranks, Russia may see a prolonged defense as in its interest.
0.72295
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Science & Technology
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 7%
7%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
73%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
20%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
0%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Up to date, Russia controlled approximately 15% of Ukrainian territory. However, Ukrainian forces have made constant progress in regaining territory, and it is possible that they will be able to regain more territory before the end of the year.
Aside from that, according to New York Times analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War, Russia has struggled to push forward across the wide-open fields in the south. It is facing extensive minefields and hundreds of miles of fortifications
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 23, 2023 06:48PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Oct 23, 2023 to Nov 23, 2023
Why do you think you're right?
A settlement could be reached if the conflict expands beyond the Gaza Strip and involves political actors that could lead the conflict to a worldwide catastrophe.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
So far an agreement between the Hamas terrorist group and the Israeli government to agree on a ceasefire is not feasible, this is supported by several reasons such as the Hamas group continues with deadly attacks against the region in the same way as Israel, Hamas continues to hold captives both domestic and foreign and continue with direct threats using firearms. Neither side is willing to stop attacking and although the motives are different since the origin of the conflict has two completely different sides, both sides remain convinced to "protect" their cause.
The only feasible solution is the agreement announced by both the Israeli and US governments, which is the entry of food and medicine, or an agreement between the parties involved to free the many hostages currently held by Hamas, although given the current situation, it is unlikely that the hostages will be released.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+10%)
Yes
70%
(-10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The benefits of JCPOA depend highly on the perspective in which they are analized. But, The JCPOA has brough Iran the possibility of alleviate the economic sanctions imposed by US and EU, allowing Iran to open up to trade and investment.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Teheran has already mentioned a gradual abandonment
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
President Vladimir Putin has proven himself a master of political manoeuvring and unpredictability. Still, the decision to invade Ukraine has received international condemnation. Taking into consideration that fact, the war has caused significant economic hardship and public dissatisfaction. According to Reuters, While Putin may not face any real competition in the election, he faces the most serious set of challenges faced by any Kremlin chief since Mikhail Gorbachev dealing with the collapsing Soviet Union more than three decades ago. The war in Ukraine triggered the biggest confrontation with the West since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis; Western sanctions have dealt the biggest external blow to the Russian economy in decades.
Why might you be wrong?
President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics, he continues to have high approval ratings among the Russian public and has effectively eliminated political opposition.
Putin continues to enjoy broad support after nearly a quarter of a century in power, despite having launched an immensely costly war in Ukraine and provoked repeated attacks inside Russia.
According to some Russian opinion polls, he has an 80% approval rating, higher than before the Ukrainian war. According to Reuters, Putin enjoys the overwhelming support of the Russian people, who do not want to be given any lessons in democracy by the West and no politician in the West enjoys similar levels of approval as Putin does.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-run-again-president-2024-2023-12-08/