Confirmed previous forecast
0.462159
Relative Brier Score
327
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 34 | 392 | 327 | 731 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 89 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 34 | 87 | 63 | 137 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 22 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Togo
30%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
50%
(0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-7%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
5%
(0%)
Odesa
decreasing it given the time is approaching and
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files