134th
Accuracy Rank

Yifan

About:

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All Time Stats

3.785269

Relative Brier Score

731

Forecasts

22

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 34 392 327 731
Comments 0 0 7 4 89
Questions Forecasted 0 34 87 63 137
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 10 6 22
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, Iran: Threats & Influence, Science & Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Russia-Ukraine War

Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program, Iran-VNSAs, Mission: Diplomacy, Semiconductor Supply Chain, Decoding Disinformation

New Badge
Yifan earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Yifan made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
60% (0%)
Togo
30% (0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Yifan made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50% (0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
50% (0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Yifan made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Yifan made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Yifan made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3% (-7%)
Kharkiv
1% (0%)
Kyiv
5% (0%)
Odesa

decreasing it given the time is approaching and 

Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Yifan made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
1% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Yifan made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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