RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 11, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 11, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	11%	+39%	-3%
No	50%	89%	-39%	+3%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 11, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	17%	0%	+17%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	68%	22%	+46%	-17%
More than or equal to 28%	15%	77%	-62%	+16%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 11, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	44%	+16%	-2%
No	40%	56%	-16%	+2%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 11, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 11, 2024 07:21PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Sep 11, 2024 to Mar 11, 2025	Oct 11, 2024	84%	-74%	+60%
No	90%	Sep 11, 2024 to Mar 11, 2025	Oct 11, 2024	16%	+74%	-60%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 09:34PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	0%	+10%	+0%
No	90%	100%	-10%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 09:34PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	1%	+4%	+0%
No	95%	99%	-4%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 09:34PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
No	97%	99%	-2%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 09:34PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	22%	+18%	-11%
No	60%	78%	-18%	+11%

Yifan

About: