RAND Forecasting Initiative

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 08:19PM
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	64%	46%	+18%	+0%
30 days	3%	23%	-20%	-1%
31-60 days	22%	13%	+9%	+1%
61-90 days	6%	8%	-2%	+1%
91 days or more	5%	10%	-5%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 08:21PM
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	7%	9%	-2%	-1%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	28%	12%	+16%	+0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	28%	15%	+13%	+0%
Not before 2026	36%	64%	-28%	+1%

Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 08:55PM
(22 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	32%	-2%	-1%
No	70%	68%	+2%	+1%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 09:48PM
(21 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	6%	-1%	+0%
No	95%	95%	+1%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 09:57PM
(21 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2026	Jun 27, 2025 09:57PM	11%	-1%	+0%
No	90%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2026	Jun 27, 2025 09:57PM	89%	+1%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 09:59PM
(20 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	8%	+0%	+0%
No	92%	92%	+0%	+0%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 10:00PM
(20 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	10%	9%	+1%	0%
Bolivia	13%	13%	+0%	+0%
Ecuador	10%	8%	+2%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 10:01PM
(20 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	38%	-8%	-1%
No	70%	62%	+8%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 10:02PM
(20 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	15%	11%	+4%	0%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	30%	32%	-2%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 10:03PM
(20 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	9%	+1%	+0%
No	90%	91%	-1%	+0%

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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season