RAND Forecasting Initiative

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:54PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	7%	+1%	-3%
No	92%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	93%	-1%	+3%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:54PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	1%	+0%	+1%
No	99%	Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025	Nov 29, 2024	99%	+0%	-1%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:54PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:54PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025	Jan 29, 2025	12%	-7%	+4%
No	95%	Oct 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2025	Jan 29, 2025	88%	+7%	-4%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:55PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	99%	97%	+2%	+1%
No	1%	3%	-2%	-1%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:56PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	21%	-1%	-3%
No	80%	79%	+1%	+3%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:56PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	45%	32%	+13%	-3%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	40%	65%	-25%	+2%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	15%	3%	+12%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:56PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	8%	9%	-1%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	8%	6%	+2%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	22%	+8%	-7%
No	70%	Oct 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2025	Jan 30, 2025	78%	-8%	+7%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:00AM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

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