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Forecasted Questions
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Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 16, 2024 09:35PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 2%
No 98% 99%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 16, 2024 09:35PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 16, 2024 09:35PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 8% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 11% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 81% 99%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 5%
No 90% 95%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 Oct 16, 2024 0%
No 99% Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 Oct 16, 2024 100%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 3%
No 95% Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 97%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 Oct 16, 2024 1%
No 98% Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 Oct 16, 2024 99%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 10% 7%
Armenia 1% 1%
Georgia 1% 3%
Kazakhstan 1% 1%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 16, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 10% 4%
Kyiv 1% 1%
Odesa 5% 1%
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