RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 08:07PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
No	97%	95%	+2%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 08:19PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	64%	55%	+9%	+9%
30 days	3%	11%	-8%	-13%
31-60 days	22%	9%	+13%	-4%
61-90 days	6%	7%	-1%	+0%
91 days or more	5%	18%	-13%	+8%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 08:21PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	1%	0%	+1%	-1%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	7%	9%	-2%	-2%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	28%	15%	+13%	+4%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	28%	16%	+12%	+1%
Not before 2026	36%	60%	-24%	-2%

Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 08:55PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	28%	+2%	-5%
No	70%	72%	-2%	+5%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 09:48PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	5%	+0%	+0%
No	95%	95%	+0%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 09:57PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2026	Jun 27, 2025 09:57PM	10%	+0%	-1%
No	90%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2026	Jun 27, 2025 09:57PM	90%	+0%	+1%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 09:59PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	7%	+1%	-2%
No	92%	93%	-1%	+2%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 10:00PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	10%	9%	+1%	+1%
Bolivia	13%	13%	+0%	+0%
Ecuador	10%	8%	+2%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 10:01PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	38%	-8%	+0%
No	70%	62%	+8%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 10:02PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	15%	11%	+4%	+0%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	30%	29%	+1%	-3%

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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season