agree @Captbullett
-0.04323
Relative Brier Score
292
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 4 | 38 | 390 | 292 | 696 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 29 |
Questions Forecasted | 4 | 37 | 92 | 63 | 137 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 22 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Togo
30%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
50%
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
There has been a rise in coups in recent years, with seven African countries experiencing coups since 2020. It will be almost 100% to have another coup in the next six months, but I will set up the successful rate to 50% for the first prediction.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Very likely given the recent vast financial support China has given to Africa
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
1%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 16, 2024 to Sep 16, 2025
80%
(0%)
No
Sep 16, 2024 to Sep 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
5%
(0%)
Odesa
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
I decreased the likelihood from my initial 50% to 30% given its strong competitors (other giant tech companies) in the world. However, I would still choose a number above the crowd average since I am confident in how GPU and AI will be essential and transformative in the future year.