Confirmed previous forecast
-0.069975
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Artificial Intelligence,
Science & Technology
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 21, 2023 05:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Oct 21, 2023 to Nov 21, 2023
Israel and Hamas are currently in the middle of a heated conflict, with lots of anger and hostility on both sides. Neither side has shown much want at all to compromise with the other; therefore, a ceasefire is unlikely in the next week.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
Putin has had a strong grip on Russia for all of the 21st century. The Ukraine invasion might have changed people's opinions of Putin; however, there are few signs that people who no longer want Putin in office will actually be able to get him out of office.
Files
Open AI is unlikely to release a fifth-generation model to the public due to the fact that it will likely want to reserve it for private use in order to make more money/retain a certain exclusivity of its products.