RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025	Jan 27, 2025	0%	+0%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 07:17PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	8%	-7%	-5%
No	99%	92%	+7%	+5%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 07:27PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025	Jan 27, 2025	22%	-12%	-11%
No	90%	Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025	Jan 27, 2025	78%	+12%	+11%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 02:00AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 02:34AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	7%	+43%	-2%
No	50%	93%	-43%	+2%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 02:48AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	15%	20%	-5%	+2%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	70%	72%	-2%	+0%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	15%	7%	+8%	-2%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(12 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 03:38AM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	27%	+63%	-34%
No	10%	73%	-63%	+34%

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich

About: