159th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 4%
No 99% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 96%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 1%
No 98% Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025 Nov 22, 2024 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025 Jan 22, 2025 8%
No 97% Oct 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2025 Jan 22, 2025 92%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 22, 2024 02:00AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications 26% 33%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP 72% 64%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP 2% 3%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 23, 2024 04:54AM UTC
(14 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 0% 4%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 0% 3%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 26, 2024 04:47PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 12% 5%
No 88% 95%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 26, 2024 04:47PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 03:54PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Jan 27, 2025 0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:17PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 11%
No 99% 89%
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