159th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 99% 97%
No 1% 3%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 34%
No 95% 66%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 2% 2%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 03:31PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 10% Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 12%
No 90% Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 88%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 17, 2024 03:50AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 0% 1%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive 30% 13%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive 40% 50%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive 30% 33%
More than or equal to 80 0% 2%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 18, 2024 11:26PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025 Dec 18, 2024 7%
No 97% Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025 Dec 18, 2024 93%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 11:14PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 23% 24%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 100% 39%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 11:26PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 10% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 10%
No 90% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 90%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 22, 2024 03:07AM UTC
(9 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025 Dec 22, 2024 1%
No 99% Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025 Dec 22, 2024 99%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 22, 2024 03:07AM UTC
(9 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025 Dec 22, 2024 1%
No 99% Nov 22, 2024 to May 22, 2025 Dec 22, 2024 99%
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