159th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 07:27PM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 10% Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025 Jan 27, 2025 22%
No 90% Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025 Jan 27, 2025 78%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 1%
No 99% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 99%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 1% 3%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 3% 4%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 0% 1%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 1%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 02:00AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 02:34AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 50% 9%
No 50% 91%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 02:48AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 9% 0% 0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive 15% 19%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive 70% 72%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive 15% 8%
More than or equal to 40% 0% 0%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?​

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 30, 2024 03:38AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 90% 32%
No 10% 68%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 02:31AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 55% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 51%
No 45% Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 49%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 02:31AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 60% 39%
No 40% 61%
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