159th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
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By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:25PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:26PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 2% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 4% 6%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:26PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:26PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 06, 2024 08:13PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2026 Feb 6, 2025 12%
No 99% Nov 6, 2024 to May 6, 2026 Feb 6, 2025 88%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 13, 2024 04:30AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% Nov 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025 Feb 13, 2025 4%
No 95% Nov 13, 2024 to May 13, 2025 Feb 13, 2025 96%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 13, 2024 04:30AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 1% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 2% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 13, 2024 04:30AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 9%
No 95% 91%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 5%
No 99% 95%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 03:20PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 9% 7%
Armenia 1% 2%
Georgia 2% 4%
Kazakhstan 1% 2%
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