Confirmed previous forecast
0.207217
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 13 | 63 | 26 | 94 |
| Comments | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 13 | 27 | 14 | 40 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
31%
(0%)
Yes
69%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
15%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(0%)
Togo
76%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
70%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
60%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
99%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
1%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
10%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
the war is going
Why might you be wrong?
urkraine oculd give up