18th
Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel
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Forecasted Questions

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 09:12AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 7% 5%
No 93% 95%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 12:38PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 12:38PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 04:01PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 15% 24%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 25% 43%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 07:02PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 100% 97%
No 0% 3%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?​

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(6 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:10AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 97% 31%
No 3% 69%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 09:59PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 0%
No 99% Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Nov 30, 2024 100%

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(6 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 02:10PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 29% 29%
No 71% 71%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 05:20PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 1%
No 100% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 99%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 05:20PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 1%
No 100% Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Dec 1, 2024 99%
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