Forecasted Questions
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 09:12AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 09:12AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 7% | 5% | +2% | +0% |
No | 93% | 95% | -2% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 12:38PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 12:38PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
No | 100% | 98% | +2% | -1% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 12:38PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 12:38PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 04:01PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 04:01PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Togo | 15% | 24% | -9% | -3% |
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | 25% | 43% | -18% | +4% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 07:02PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 28, 2024 07:02PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 100% | 97% | +3% | +1% |
No | 0% | 3% | -3% | -1% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(6 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(6 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 12:10AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 12:10AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 97% | 31% | +66% | -29% |
No | 3% | 69% | -66% | +29% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2024 09:59PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 30, 2024 09:59PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
No | 99% | Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(6 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(6 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 02:10PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Nov 01, 2024 02:10PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 29% | 29% | +0% | +3% |
No | 71% | 71% | +0% | -3% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 05:20PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Nov 01, 2024 05:20PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 | Dec 1, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 | Dec 1, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts
21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2024 05:20PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Nov 01, 2024 05:20PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 | Dec 1, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 | Dec 1, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |