18th

Accuracy Rank

cmeinel

Carolyn Meinel

About:

I find geopolitical forecasting to be immensely entertaining. I also enjoy the research side, focusing on hybrid human/machine forecasting. Most recently, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207021001473, see also a webinar, https://youtu.be/iXuA2sE0Uzs.

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Forecasted Questions

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
106 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(6 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 06:30AM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	7%	-7%	-3%
No	100%	93%	+7%	+3%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 01:38PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025	Feb 12, 2025	5%	+3%	+0%
No	92%	Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025	Feb 12, 2025	95%	-3%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
37 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 06:15PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	1%	9%	-8%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	1%	6%	-5%	+0%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 12, 2024 06:16PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 24%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%	6%	4%	+2%	-1%
More than or equal to 28%	94%	94%	+0%	+0%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2024 07:46PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Angola	10%	11%	-1%	+0%
Kenya	10%	9%	+1%	+0%
Ethiopia	40%	35%	+5%	+3%
Nigeria	5%	5%	+0%	+0%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2024 11:27PM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	8%	-4%	-3%
No	96%	92%	+4%	+3%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 05:24AM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	5%	7%	-2%	+0%
Armenia	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
Georgia	8%	4%	+4%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 08:23PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
No	99%	95%	+4%	+0%