Forecasted Questions
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 08:27PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Nov 18, 2024 08:27PM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 36% | -33% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 64% | +33% | +0% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 10:51PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 10:51PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 | Dec 20, 2024 | 7% | +10% | +0% |
| No | 83% | Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025 | Dec 20, 2024 | 93% | -10% | +0% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 10:53PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Nov 20, 2024 10:53PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025 | Feb 20, 2025 | 13% | +1% | -2% |
| No | 86% | Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025 | Feb 20, 2025 | 87% | -1% | +2% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 06:21PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 21, 2024 06:21PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 1% | +8% | +0% |
| No | 91% | 99% | -8% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts
29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 07:17PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 21, 2024 07:17PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025 | Dec 21, 2024 | 2% | +7% | +0% |
| No | 91% | Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025 | Dec 21, 2024 | 98% | -7% | +0% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 07:19PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 21, 2024 07:19PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 33% | 36% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 67% | 64% | +3% | +0% |
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 07:24PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 21, 2024 07:24PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62% | 38% | +24% | +0% |
| No | 38% | 62% | -24% | +0% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 07:29PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 21, 2024 07:29PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 12% | 1% | +11% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 18% | 7% | +11% | -1% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 24% | 29% | -5% | +2% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 23% | 38% | -15% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 23% | 25% | -2% | -2% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 22, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 5% | 1% | +4% | -1% |
| Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 34% | 13% | +21% | -1% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 46% | 51% | -5% | -2% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 13% | 34% | -21% | +4% |
| More than or equal to 80 | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2024 06:12PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Nov 22, 2024 06:12PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |