Confirmed previous forecast
0.403826
Relative Brier Score
15
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Decoding Disinformation,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
37%
(0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
30%
(0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
7%
(0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
7%
(0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 1, 2024 10:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 1, 2024 10:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024
98%
No
Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024
I don’t think it’s likely.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 7, 2023 09:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Nov 7, 2023 to May 7, 2024
With the increasing tension in the area, it is quite possible there will be a blockade or attack
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
20%
Less than 5%
76%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 6%
4%
More than or equal to 6%
The pattern has shown that the UK is staying around roughly around 5%
Files