edwardkusewa

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6.319661

Relative Brier Score

22

Forecasts

8

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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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Comments 0 0 0 0 13
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 11
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 Definitions


New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

It is possible that OpenAI may release a fifth-generation model in the future, but the specific timing and details of such a release are not within my knowledge.

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Why might you be wrong?

The AI research field is highly dynamic, with advancements happening rapidly. It's possible that unexpected breakthroughs or new technological developments could expedite the release of more advanced AI models like GPT-5.

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Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 10 questions!
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Comment deleted on Jun 09, 2023 11:27AM UTC

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Why might you be wrong?

However, it's important to note that political situations can change rapidly, and unforeseen events or developments may occur that could potentially alter the political landscape. These could include political unrest, constitutional crises, changes in government, or other factors that could lead to an irregular transition of power.

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
edwardkusewa
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jul 1, 2023 11:15AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70% (0%)
Yes
Jun 1, 2023 to Dec 1, 2023
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Political climate: The political climate in Pakistan can be influenced by a variety of factors, including economic conditions, security issues, social unrest, and international relations. These factors can shape public sentiment and impact electoral outcomes. Performance of the government: The performance of Imran Khan's government and the PTI's ability to deliver on their promises will be critical in determining his re-election prospects. Factors such as economic growth, job creation, poverty alleviation, infrastructure development, and social welfare initiatives will be closely scrutinized by the public. Popularity of the PTI: The popularity and support for the PTI among the electorate will be a crucial factor in determining Imran Khan's chances of re-election. The PTI's ability to maintain a strong base of supporters, expand its reach to new constituencies, and mobilize voters will be instrumental in securing another term for Imran Khan as Prime Minister.

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Why might you be wrong?

Shifting political climate: The political climate can evolve significantly over time due to various factors such as social, economic, or security issues. These changes may alter public sentiment and impact electoral outcomes differently than expected. Performance of the government: While the performance of the government is an important factor, it can be subjective and open to interpretation. Different segments of the population may have varying perspectives on the government's achievements and failures, which could affect their support in the upcoming election. Changing popularity of the PTI: Public opinion and the popularity of political parties can fluctuate over time. The PTI's popularity at the time of the election may be influenced by a range of factors such as policy decisions, governance issues, and the effectiveness of their election campaign. Emergence of new candidates or parties: New candidates or political parties can enter the political arena, altering the dynamics of the election. The introduction of strong opposition candidates or the formation of coalitions could impact Imran Khan's chances of re-election. Unforeseen events: Unpredictable events such as scandals, controversies, or significant developments within the country or internationally can influence electoral outcomes. These events can reshape public opinion and impact the electoral landscape in ways that are difficult to anticipate.


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