Updating just because Moldova is way too high. It should be similar to Georgia.
-0.054071
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Artificial Intelligence
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Iran-VNSAs,
Semiconductor Supply Chain
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Moldova
1%
Armenia
4%
Georgia
2%
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-2%)
Yes
95%
(+2%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
93%
No
100 is about twice as big as up to now. Only 5 weeks until deadline.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+30%)
Yes
0%
(-30%)
No
Passed
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 19, 2024 12:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025
Confirm following Israel counter-strike.
Im not increasing probability of war. The reports contain almost no information, which is what youd expect if the attacks either didnt really happen or were just performative. In addition Iran played down the counter-strikes and signaled no retaliation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Speaker Mike Johnson seems to have turned around on the issue. Gave speech supporting 60bn bill to be voted on Saturday
Files
time