I believe there is a relatively low probability, considering that the United States has asked Israel for some restraint regarding Gaza.
0.121614
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Iran: Threats & Influence,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Science & Technology
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran-VNSAs,
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 1, 2024 02:55AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
29%
Yes
May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
71%
No
May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 1, 2024 02:53AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Jun 1, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
May 1, 2024 to Jun 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 1, 2024 02:53AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 27, 2024 02:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2024
95%
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2024
it will take time
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 27, 2024 02:16PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
95%
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Well, Iran's social and institutional history shows us that upheavals are somewhat common in their history. I don't think that the supreme leader will leave his position because we need to think of it as an exceptional event, and it is hard to assume the exceptional, especially because Ali Khamenei has been the supreme leader since 1989. It is not wrong to say that a great upheaval is necessary for him to cease being the great leader of his country.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Assuming things on people and their actions can be difficult. From the French Revolution to the Russian Revolution (though not suggesting they are the same), certain patterns tend to persist. However, if we consider certain groups in Iran that don't feel supported by the government, I might be wrong, yes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-40%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Pakistan election officials reject former prime minister Khan's candidacy in parliamentary election
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An election is like a whirlwind; the Supreme Court could make him eligible, and then he could become a martyr, rallying some people to vote for him. However, it's unlikely to happen.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
It could decline the numbers.
Source?