156th
Accuracy Rank

gbjurado

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4.892561

Relative Brier Score

55

Forecasts

2

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Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 25 questions!
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Here's an informed analysis on a potential collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance by October 1st, 2025:


Factors Suggesting Collaboration (Maybe):


Shifting Landscape: The telecommunications industry is increasingly embracing Open RAN for its flexibility and vendor neutrality. Huawei, a major player, might eventually need to adapt.

Chinese Influence: Some members of the O-RAN Alliance are Chinese companies, including China Mobile, a major Huawei client. This could open doors for future collaboration.

Against Collaboration (Probably):


Past Skepticism: Huawei has previously expressed doubts about Open RAN, potentially preferring its own proprietary solutions.

Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing tensions between the US and China could create hurdles for a formal collaboration.

No Recent Signs: As of May 1, 2024, there haven't been any concrete indications of Huawei joining the O-RAN Alliance.

Overall, a collaboration by October 2025 seems unlikely, but not entirely impossible.

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There's a good chance that a North American Open Testing and Integration Center (OTIC) will issue an O-RAN Certificate between April 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025. 

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First-half revenue is likely to fall around 10% in U.S. dollar terms year-on-year,

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In June last year, there was news that Microsoft would close the Asia Research Institute. According to reports, Beijing-based Microsoft Research Asia has begun seeking visas to move top AI experts from Beijing to its research institute in Vancouver. At the time, the company did not make a statement about the rumours. However, the company has now come out to say that this is not true.

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gbjurado
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No

Based on the current situation, I find it unlikely that Myanmar will hold truly free and fair national elections before July 1st, 2025. However, the junta might hold a controlled election earlier, depending on domestic and international pressures. They are more likely to prioritize consolidating their power and controlling the process than adhering to democratic principles.

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the likelihood of a fab shutdown will depend on the specific circumstances that arise. However, TSMC is a critical supplier of semiconductors to the global electronics industry, and any shutdown of its fabs would have a significant impact on the world economy.

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