168th
Accuracy Rank

gcahlik

About:
Show more
Forecasted Questions

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 10% Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025 Dec 23, 2024 22%
No 90% Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025 Dec 23, 2024 78%

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 12:17AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 24% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% 0% 1%
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% 20% 4%
More than or equal to 28% 80% 94%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 21, 2024 11:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 25% 9%
No 75% 91%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 22, 2024 12:54AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 5%
No 95% 95%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 02:38AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 59 0% 1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive 5% 8%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive 30% 27%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive 40% 37%
More than or equal to 90 25% 27%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:36AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 25% Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 12%
No 75% Oct 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2025 Jan 28, 2025 88%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 10% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 7%
No 90% Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 93%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 0% 7%
Armenia 0% 2%
Georgia 0% 4%
Kazakhstan 0% 2%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 25% 8%
No 75% 92%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2024 01:37AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 34%
No 90% 66%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username